The federal government's efforts to combat the ongoing coronavirus pandemic illustrate why we shouldn't put our full trust in government to find a cure. After all, they badly botched the testing, costing valuable time in identifying new cases and limiting its spread.

Fortunately, private-sector innovators are leading where government has underwhelmed, conducting speedy research and development into potentially life-saving cures, while providing critical support in other areas where government action was lacking.

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As the outbreak of the novel coronavirus continues to gain momentum in the United States, there is intense interest in the development of a vaccine. Several US drugmakers have begun working on a vaccine, independently or with federal agencies like the National Institutes of Health.

The public is hungry for news about vaccines, and progress on their development is, at times, exaggerated.

Fox Business reported:

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For anyone following the COVID-19 pandemic – and who isn't? – it's evident that we're awash in punditry, speculation, and modeling. But we two are Massachusetts Institute of Technology graduates, and we're looking past the noise to what critical data we don't yet have that will affect the management of the outbreak – which will, in turn, affect both public health and our economic recovery.

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With the United States gradually ramping up testing for the coronavirus, there has been a sharp, expected increase in the number of cases of COVID-19 disease. The individuals tested will learn whether they are infected, but, paradoxically, the public—and public health officials—will not know whether the total results are encouraging or discouraging. This is because the rates of the coronavirus infectivity and mortality will remain poorly understood. And without such information, it is impossible to predict, accurately, the percentage of Americans who have been or are likely to become infected, and of those infected how many will be asymptomatic, have a relatively mild, flu-like disease, become critically ill, or die.

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As the coronavirus pandemic wreaks more and more medical and social havoc worldwide, we need to recall the observation of The Great One—no, not Dr. Tony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health—the other one, hockey player Wayne Gretzky, who said, "I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been."

Anticipating what's coming is especially important in confronting an emerging infectious disease whose dynamics and possible impacts we don't yet know. If we react too slowly to changing circumstances, we can fall off a metaphorical cliff.

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